The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market E ects of Import Competition in the United States.∗

نویسندگان

  • David H. Autor
  • David Dorn
  • Gordon H. Hanson
  • Guy Michaels
  • Robert Staiger
  • John van Reenen
  • Jonathan Vogel
چکیده

We analyze the e ect of rising Chinese import competition between 1990 and 2007 on local U.S. labor markets, exploiting cross-market variation in import exposure stemming from initial di erences in industry specialization while instrumenting for imports using changes in Chinese imports by industry to other high-income countries. Rising exposure increases unemployment, lowers labor force participation, and reduces wages in local labor markets. Conservatively, it explains one-quarter of the contemporaneous aggregate decline in U.S. manufacturing employment. Transfer bene ts payments for unemployment, disability, retirement, and healthcare also rise sharply in exposed labor markets. The deadweight loss of nancing these transfers is one to two-thirds as large as U.S. gains from trade with China.

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تاریخ انتشار 2011